The global commercial market written premium increased in 2024, and future moderate growth is expected to continue through 2025.¹ Global carrier combined ratios remained broadly steady at favorable levels, reflecting improved carrier profitability. Profitability was partly driven by technological advances, which were utilized to reduce underwriting expenses and resource optimization, identify new and efficient distribution sources and access to available capacity for emerging markets, from both a product line and regional perspective.

Not all growth has been profitable, as material variability exists across several key commercial segments.¹ Global property remains susceptible to catastrophic losses and regional variability in loss activity, evidenced in recent years, driving a hard market. Only specialty lines delivered consistent, meaningful levels of profitability. The U.S.-issued global casualty programs, addressing casualty-specific coverage internationally, continue to perform well, with a mix of results from each of the distinct components (general liability, auto/motor liability and workers’ compensation/employer liability). Motor liability remains the loss leader of the casualty lines, with general liability representing the most consistent strong performer. This trend is attributable to the less litigious environment outside of the U.S., though the gap continues to narrow.

Broader impacts scoping various lines of business will have increasing applicability in 2025, with carriers and insureds closely evaluating increased regulations and tax requirements, triggering new considerations in corporate structure, domicile and insurance procurement.

This outlook allows multinationals to strategically leverage their diverse global exposures to help optimize the total cost of risk through various program structures, assisted by a flat to softening pricing outlook on a globally aggregated scale.

¹ Driving profitable commercial property and casualty insurance growth | McKinsey

Property & Casualty Team